Asia stocks rise as Alcoa sees stronger demand

BANGKOK (AP) — Asian stock markets rose Wednesday after the fourth-quarter earnings season got off to a positive start in the U.S. with aluminum giant Alcoa forecasting higher demand for 2013.
Demand for aluminum has been hurt by the weak global economy, but Alcoa predicted a 7 percent increase in demand this year, slightly better than the 6 percent increase in 2012. Because Alcoa makes aluminum for so many key industries, investors study its results for clues about the health and direction of the overall economy.
"Regional markets are mostly firmer after the Alcoa result set the tone early in Asia," said Stan Shamu of IG Markets in Melbourne in a market commentary. "Alcoa's results are generally considered a bellwether for the global economy and the fact that the aluminum giant forecasts higher demand in 2013 appeased investors."
Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 0.4 percent to 23,196.73 after a downturn in the prior session, with sentiment helped by gains in mainland Chinese shares.
"Stability in China is helping. We are taking a lot of cues from China-Asia," said Jackson Wong, vice president of Tanrich Securities in Hong Kong.
Japan's Nikkei 225 index opened lower on a strengthening yen but reversed course as the currency slipped against the dollar. The benchmark in Tokyo gained 0.6 percent to 10,574.53. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4 percent to 4,709.10. South Korea's Kopsi was 0.3 percent lower at 1,992.13. Benchmarks in Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines rose. Indonesia and Malaysia fell.
Analysts at Capital Economics said in a market commentary that "2013 has begun with more optimism about prospects for the global economy."
Among individual stocks, shares of Australian company Alumina Ltd., a joint venture partner of Alcoa, jumped 4.6 percent. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. rose 4.8 percent in Tokyo. Hong Kong-listed China Railway Group rose 3 percent.
European stock markets fell Tuesday on a report showing unemployment in the 17 countries that use the euro hit 11.8 percent in December, a record high and up from 11.7 percent the previous month.
Major indexes surged last week after U.S. lawmakers passed a bill to avoid a combination of government spending cuts and tax increases that have come to be known as the fiscal cliff. The deal, however, remains incomplete, and trading has been cautious since then. Politicians will face another deadline in two months to agree on more spending cuts.
U.S. stocks closed lower Tuesday, before Alcoa's earnings report was released. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 0.4 percent to 13,328.85. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 0.3 percent to 1,457.15. The Nasdaq composite index shed 0.2 percent to 3,091.81.
Benchmark crude for February delivery was down 15 cents to $93.01 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 4 cents to close at $93.15 per barrel on the Nymex on Tuesday.
In currencies, the euro fell to $1.3074 from $1.3084 Tuesday in New York. The dollar rose to 87.41 yen from 87.19 yen.

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Brent slips, below $112 as investors eye China data, cbank meetings

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Brent futures slipped below $112 per barrel on Wednesday as investors awaited Chinese trade data, U.S. corporate earnings and the outcome of a European Central Bank policy meeting to glean insights into the health of the world's biggest economies.
China, the world's biggest energy consumer, will release its December trade figures on Thursday and fourth-quarter economic growth numbers on January 18, while the ECB and Bank of England will begin their policy meetings later in the day.
Investor caution preceding the events also kept a lid on Asian stock gains. For the oil markets, inventory data showing a jump in U.S. crude stockpiles added to the pressure.
Front-month Brent futures shed 17 cents to $111.77 per barrel at 0400 GMT, after adding 54 cents on Tuesday. U.S. crude was trading down 12 cents at $93.03 per barrel.
"What we're seeing in the oil markets is the cautious sentiment playing up ahead of some key economic events this week," said Ker Chung Yang, senior investment analyst at Phillips Futures Pte in Singapore.
"Trading at the start of the year is typically steady and I expect prices to remain range bound in the first quarter."
U.S. crude futures slid while Brent rose in the previous session when the annual rebalancing of the S&P GSCI commodity index kicked in, prompting index funds to adjust their portfolios accordingly.
The rebalancing, announced in early November, will increase the index's holdings of Brent and reduce holdings of WTI as the output of Brent-related grades wanes and U.S. crude output surges. The passive index rolls its holdings between the fifth and ninth trading days of the month.
ECONOMIC HEALTH
U.S. corporate profits are expected to be higher than the third quarter's lacklustre results, but analysts' estimates are down sharply from where they were in October.
"Oil markets are watching the U.S. fourth-quarter earnings; from a general market point of view, a good start to the Q4 earnings season will set a bullish tone in the market," said Natalie Rampono, senior commodity strategist at ANZ.
The Bank of England and ECB policymakers will begin two-day meetings on Wednesday and investors will be looking for hints that the ECB may lower interest rates in 2013 to pull the regional economy out of recession.
China's data also remains in focus. Reuters polls predicted that the trade numbers may show marginal improvement in the economy, although weak U.S. and European demand may weigh on exports. Economic growth may have accelerated, ending seven quarters of weaker expansion.
"Global economic growth is expected to ramp up this year... this should bode well for oil demand," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in their outlook for the year released on Tuesday.
"We forecast oil prices will pick up in the 2H 2013 in line with accelerating economic growth."
The bank expects Brent to average $115 per barrel and U.S. crude to average $100 per barrel in the second half of 2013.
HIGH U.S. PRODUCTION
Weighing on prices, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday that the country's crude oil production will rise by the biggest margin on record in 2013, and is set to soar by a quarter over two years.
The rapid increase underscores how improvements in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technology -- commonly referred to as 'fracking' -- have transformed the energy market in the last five years, allowing producers to tap shale oil from tight rock formations.
Adding to the pressure, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said crude stocks rose 2.4 million barrels last week, beating analysts' expectations of a 1.5 million barrel increase.
The increase was largely due to a 1.2 million barrel per day jump in crude imports, API said.

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Global shares buoyed by Alcoa earnings, dollar gains on yen

LONDON (Reuters) - World shares staged a modest recovery from two days of losses on Wednesday after aluminum giant Alcoa opened the U.S. earnings season with an optimistic outlook for world demand.
However, with European and British central banks due to hold policy meetings on Thursday, the same day Spain will test demand for its debt and China releases its latest trade data, investors were in a cautious mood.
Alcoa, the largest aluminum producer in the United States, rose 1.3 percent in after-hours trade after it reported a fourth-quarter profit in line with Wall Street expectations and revenues that beat forecasts.
The results lifted Asian stock markets and pushed Europe's FTSE Eurofirst 300 index <.fteu3> up around 0.2 percent in early trade, leaving the MSCI world equity index <.miwd00000pus> up 0.1 percent. London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> were flat to 0.2 percent higher.
U.S. stock futures were up 0.15 percent, suggesting a firmer start on Wall Street. <.l><.eu><.n>
Corporate profits are expected to be higher than the third quarter's lackluster results, but analysts' estimates are down sharply from where they were in October.
"Expectations are quite low going into the earnings season as we saw a lot of downward guidance in the past few months. There is potential for an upside surprise to come through," said Robert Parkes, equity strategist at HSBC Securities.
SOVEREIGN DEBT TEST
In European fixed income markets German Bund prices dipped slightly as investors prepared for the government's auction of 5 billion euros' worth of new five-year bonds following successful debt sales in Austria, the Netherlands and Ireland on Tuesday.
Investors were also looking ahead to Spanish and Italian bond auctions on Thursday for the new year's first test of market appetite for peripheral euro zone debt.
The Spanish auction could also provide clues on the timing of a much anticipated request by Madrid for fresh financial aid from the ECB. [ID:nL5E9C46KK]
The dollar meanwhile climbed against the yen, moving back towards a 2-1/2 year high hit last week, on expectations of a much bolder monetary easing from the Bank of Japan at its next meeting later this month.
The U.S. currency was up 0.7 percent at 87.61 yen, above a near one-week low of 86.82 hit earlier in Tokyo.
"No one is going to want to be short yen going into the BOJ meeting," said Derek Halpenny, European head of FX research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
Sources familiar with the BOJ's thinking told Reuters the central bank was likely to adopt a 2 percent inflation target at the meeting, double its current goal, and issue a statement with the government pledging to pursue bold monetary easing steps.
The BOJ will also consider easing monetary policy again this month, probably through a further increase in its 101 trillion yen ($1.2 trillion) asset buying and lending programme, the sources said.
The euro held steady against the dollar at $1.3080, with most analysts forecasting the European Central Bank will keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, though some believe rates will be cut later this year.
CHINA DEMAND EYED
Brent crude oil slipped around 0.3 percent to below $112 per barrel as the market awaited the latest trade data from China, the world's biggest energy consumer, due on Thursday.
"What we're seeing in the oil markets is the cautious sentiment playing up ahead of some key economic events this week," said Ker Chung Yang, senior investment analyst at Phillips Futures in Singapore.
However, iron ore jumped to its highest since October 2011, stretching a rally that has lifted prices by more than a third since December as China replenished stockpiles and as supply in the spot market remained limited.
Iron ore, a raw material used to make steel, has now risen 83 percent since falling to below $87 in September.

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Burundi coffee earnings fall 63 pct in December

BUJUMBURA (Reuters) - Burundi's earnings from coffee exports fell 63 percent in December from the previous month due to lower volumes sold, the country's industry regulator said on Monday.
"Low quantities of coffee were exported in December as most buyers in western countries were off for the holidays," said regulator ARFIC in its monthly report.
Earnings dropped to $2.1 million from $5.7 million in November, as the amount of coffee sold tumbled to 896,547 kg from 1,671,638 kg in the previous month.
ARFIC expects the central African nation to earn a total of$61.4 million from coffee exports during the 2012/2013 (April-March) crop year, slightly up from $61.2 million earned in the 2011/2012 season.
Projected high output from the world's top producers like Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia could lower coffee prices in global markets, ARFIC said.
Coffee is the country's top hard currency earner and the sector employs some 800,000 smallholder farmers in a population of eight million.

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Analysis: Fiscal crisis seen hurting tech earnings

Warning to investors: major U.S. technology companies could miss estimates for fourth-quarter earnings as "fiscal cliff" worries likely led some corporate clients to tighten their belts last month and refrain from spending all of their 2012 IT budgets.
Tech companies usually enjoy a spike in orders in December as corporations use money left over in their budgets to buy goods on their wish lists - information technology products that are nice to have, rather than essential.
But the so-called year-end budget flush was not as deep in 2012 as in typical years, according to tech analysts and other experts citing conversations with corporate technology buyers and sales sources. They said companies held back on IT purchases in December in part because of Washington's protracted negotiations to avoid the fiscal cliff, which is a package of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts that could have pushed the already soft U.S. economy into recession.
It took until late on January 1 for House Republican lawmakers led by John Boehner to agree to a bill to avert the cliff, which President Barack Obama signed into law the next day.
"CIOs and CFOs were not making investments," said Andrew Bartels, an analyst with Forrester Research who advises corporate technology buyers. "If Boehner and Obama had been able to strike a deal by around December 15, we would have had end-of-quarter investments."
Analysts say they expect tech spending to remain subdued through at least the first quarter, as businesses wait to see if Congress can resolve another looming fiscal fight, this time over the debt ceiling and federal spending cuts.
Wall Street has already significantly lowered expectations for the tech sector, which has been underperforming the overall market.
The Street now expects tech companies in the S&P 500 to report a 1.0 percent drop in fourth-quarter earnings, against an average 2.8 percent rise for companies in the full S&P 500. Three months ago, analysts were expecting tech sector earnings to rise 9.4 percent in the fourth quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
First-quarter tech profit growth estimates have also been lowered to 2.6 percent, from 9 percent three months ago, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Greg Harrison, a corporate earnings research analyst with Thomson Reuters, said he expects analysts will cut their predictions further after tech companies report fourth-quarter results.
Intel Corp will report its quarterly earnings on January 17, the first of a group of big tech companies reliant on enterprise spending. Intel will be followed by IBM, Microsoft Corp and EMC Corp later in January. Cisco Systems Inc, Dell Inc and Hewlett-Packard Co close their quarterly books in about a month.
Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, which manages about $54 billion, said he generally expects fourth-quarter tech results to disappoint, but has yet to determine by how much.
He expects the sluggish performance to continue into the first quarter, then improve in the second half of the year, assuming Democrats and Republicans reach a deal on the debt ceiling and spending cuts.
"So far we only have one piece," he said of the fiscal cliff deal.
USE IT OR LOSE IT
Even if Washington politicians eventually resolve their differences over fiscal issues, that is not expected to fully restore losses already caused to tech spending, experts said.
Technology projects that were axed at the end of last year will not likely be resumed any time soon because annual tech budgets are allocated on a "use it or lose it" basis, according to experts who advise companies on technology investments.
"These budgets are based on how the business is doing at the time. All of these are postponable decisions," said Howard Anderson, a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management and frequent adviser to chief investment officers at Fortune 500 companies.
Analysts said that makers of hardware, from computers to networking gear, likely missed out on the year-end budget flush because businesses can postpone upgrades for years by buying new software that is compatible with older equipment.
They said they expect some companies to have postponed the purchase of new PCs in the fourth quarter, which could hit the results of Windows and Office maker Microsoft, along with PC makers Dell and HP, as well as chipmakers Intel and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
Nucleus Research analyst Rebecca Wettemann said some businesses likely delayed buying new PCs to avoid having to upgrade to Windows 8, which was introduced late last year.
"A new operating system causes huge disruptions for businesses," she said. "Who wants to take that on in the face of all the other uncertainty?"
Microsoft, Dell, HP and Intel declined to comment. AMD did not return requests for comment.
Beyond concerns about the U.S. economy, corporate IT buyers are also worried about the potential for further weakness in Europe and Asia.
Last Thursday, Forrester cut its closely watched forecast for 2013 global IT sales, citing the fiscal cliff debacle as one reason. Forrester now expects global IT sales to rise 3.3 percent to $2.2 trillion this year, down from its previous forecast for 4.3 percent growth.
VIRTUAL STORAGE
Analysts say the weak economy may boost adoption of recently introduced data storage technologies that allow companies to put more data on the equipment they already own, reducing the need for them to buy more hardware.
Some companies have already paid for that technology, but have yet to implement it because staff are not yet comfortable using it, said analyst Cindy Shaw of investment research firm Discern.
Shaw said that executives at those companies are likely to tell their IT staff to implement that technology to get full use out of existing equipment before they can buy more.
Storage equipment makers NetApp Inc and EMC, along with hard drive makers Western Digital Corp and Seagate Technology are likely to suffer the most from more use of the new technologies, which include storage virtualization. NetApp and Western Digital declined to comment. EMC and Seagate could not be reached for comment.
Defenders of the tech industry say the fallout from the fiscal cliff is already factored into share prices. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index has climbed 1.6 percent over the past month, below the 4.0 percent increase in the broader S&P 500 Index.
Some technology companies appear poised to outperform the pack.
Oracle Corp said on December 18 that it expects software sales growth to stay strong in 2013 despite fears about the fiscal crisis [ID:nL1E8NIEZM]. The company's earnings beat Wall Street forecasts in its most recent quarter as strong software sales offset a sharp drop in hardware revenue.
Analysts said that IBM, whose quarter ended December 31, may have fared better than other big technology companies, because it is has a large amount of recurring revenue from its services and software divisions.
"Oracle and IBM both have super strong sales teams that can bring home what they need to year after year," said Kim Forrest, senior analyst of Fort Pitt Capital.
IBM and Oracle could not be reached for comment.

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TSX drops as miners weaken, focus on U.S. earnings

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index retreated on Monday as mining stocks were pressured by softer gold prices and investors braced for the upcoming U.S. fourth-quarter earnings season.
The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index's <.gsptse> fall tracked declines on U.S. stock markets as cautious investors cashed in recent gains ahead of the earnings season. The U.S. results are expected to be only marginally stronger than the previous quarter's lackluster performance. <.n>
"We're in earnings season in the U.S. That might cause some kind of hesitation," said Michael Gayed, chief investment strategist at Pension Partners.
Gold prices slipped as investors eyed the outlook for U.S. budget talks and the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. Two top Fed officials suggested on Friday the central bank may halt its bullion-friendly asset purchases by the end of the year due to an improving economy.
The Toronto index's materials group, where miners reside, finished 0.97 percent lower.
"There's going to be some kind of noise near term, most of it due to the concern about the (U.S. budget) debt ceiling coming up. That's going to cause some near-term back and forth movement," Gayed said.
The index's energy group gave back 0.65 percent as oil prices steadied after retreating earlier in the session. TD Securities downgraded several Canadian oil and gas companies.
The S&P/TSX composite index finished down 41.26 points, or 0.33 percent, at 12,499.55. Eight of its 10 main sectors fell.
Barrick Gold Corp was the biggest drag, falling 1.67 percent to close at C$33.57, while Suncor Energy Inc slipped 1.04 percent to C$33.23. Goldcorp Inc rounded off the top three negative weights on the index, giving back 1.76 percent to C$34.69.
Canadian Natural Resources was down 1.23 percent at C$29.78, while fellow oil producer Talisman Energy Inc was off 2.27 percent at C$11.62. TD Securities cut its rating on both companies.
Toronto's resource-heavy market pared some of the robust gains it made made the previous week, when the index hit a nine-month high after the landmark U.S. budget deal.
"The markets are coming off a hangover of feeling good from last week," said Barry Schwartz, vice president and portfolio manager at Baskin Financial Services.
"Until we get a good feel on the fourth-quarter earnings and the guidance for first-quarter earnings, the market will probably trade sideways," he added.
Investors were also taking in news that global regulators gave banks four more years and greater flexibility to build up cash buffers.
The financial sector, the index's biggest, slid 0.04 percent. Royal Bank of Canada was down 0.43 percent at C$60.81. The Bank of Nova Scotia was up 0.1 percent at C$57.65.
In company news, Canada's airlines flew fuller planes in December, with dominant carrier Air Canada and No. 2 WestJet Airlines reporting record monthly passenger levels. Air Canada shares were up 5.08 percent at C$1.86. WestJet shares inched up 0.10 percent to C$20.23.

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Piano maker Steinway takes down "for sale" sign

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Steinway Musical Instruments Inc, the famous manufacturer of pianos, saxophones and trumpets, said on Wednesday it had decided not to sell itself following a 17-month-long exploration of strategic alternatives.
An American icon synonymous with handmade grand pianos, Steinway has struggled to keep its production margins competitive amid stagnant sales, and has seen its shares plunge 10 percent year-to-date. Still, its third-quarter earnings last month offered signs that cost-cutting was paying off.
In a statement on Wednesday, Steinway said it had received several non-binding indications of interest in buying the company, following talks with other companies in the sector as well as private equity, yet these did not offer more value than its own strategic plan.
"We will continue to focus management's efforts on execution of that plan and we look forward to a prosperous 2013," Steinway CEO Michael Sweeney said in the statement.
An in-principle agreement to sell its band instrument division to an investor group led by two of its board members, Dana Messina and John Stoner, was also scrapped in light of the current operating performance of the band division, Steinway said.
In July 2011, Messina, Stoner and other members of management made an offer for Steinway's band instrument and online music divisions, prompting the company to set up a special committee in order to assess it.
Later that month, Steinway asked investment bank Allen & Company LLC to a assist the special committee on exploring strategic alternatives that could also include selling the whole company outright to other interested parties.
By October 2011, Messina had stepped down as CEO of the company after 15 years at the helm to pursue his bid, yet he remained a board member. He was replaced by Sweeney, a chairman of the board of Star Tribune Media Holdings and a former president of Starbucks Coffee Company (UK) Ltd.
Steinway said on Wednesday that it was continuing a separate process to sell its leasehold interest in New York's Steinway Hall building, situated on Manhattan's 57th Street, and was in talks with several parties.
According to its website, Steinway & Sons, the company's piano unit, opened the first Steinway Hall on 14th Street in Manhattan in 1866.
With a main auditorium of 2,000 seats, it became New York City's artistic and cultural center, housing the New York Philharmonic until Carnegie Hall opened in 1891. These days, Steinway Hall is a showroom for the company's instruments.
The Waltham, Massachusetts-based company's pianos have been used by legendary artists such as Cole Porter and Sergei Rachmaninoff and by contemporary ones like Chinese concert pianist Lang Lang.

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RIM shares jump in Toronto, rebound from sharp decline

TORONTO (Reuters) - Shares of Research In Motion Ltd jumped nearly 10 percent on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday, following similar gains in New York on Wednesday, in a rebound from last week's sharp decline.
Last Friday, the volatile stock plunged more than 20 percent after the company said on an earnings conference call that it was rolling out a new fee structure for its services segment, which some investors fear could pressure the high-margin business.
"It got hit so hard after the conference call," said Ed Snyder, an analyst with Charter Equity Research. "People are still fairly optimistic about (BlackBerry 10) coming out in January, so (the rebound is) really just a value play."
The new fee structure overshadowed stronger-than-expected quarterly results.
RIM shares were up 9.7 percent to C$11.42 in midday trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The company's Nasdaq-listed stock was down 2 percent to $11.60 after big gains on Wednesday, when Canadian equity markets were closed for Boxing Day.
Through the autumn of 2012, RIM rallied as investors grew optimistic about prospects for its new make-or-break BlackBerry 10 devices, to be formally unveiled January 30. On Thursday, the shares were still up more than 80 percent from the year's low, touched in September.
The Wednesday and Thursday gains also came after several websites posted photos of what they said could be the first BlackBerry 10 phone with a physical keyboard.
Evercore Partners analyst Mark McKechnie said the photos boosted RIM's stock, which he said was depressed from last week's selloff, on a quiet trading day.
"There certainly are folks that believe in the new product cycle," he said. "The whole Wall Street community's been trying to handicap how strong that product cycle will be for RIM."
RIM has said it plans to roll out touchscreen-only devices first, a few weeks before it releases a smartphone with the QWERTY keyboard many longtime BlackBerry users rave about. But some analysts believe devices with hard keyboards will not hit the market until spring.
Management has touted BlackBerry 10's new on-screen keyboard, but some see the company's reputation for building solid, usable physical keyboards as an important competitive advantage as RIM fights for market share against Apple Inc and Samsung Electronics .
McKechnie said volatility is not unusual ahead of big smartphone launches.
"There's so much scale involved in this industry, one way or the other. A successful product versus a failure is going to really change the earnings power of a company," he said.

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A surprisingly good vintage as market logs gains

NEW YORK (AP) — If you'd told investors what was going to happen in 2012 — U.S. economic growth at stall speed, an intensifying European debt crisis, a slowdown in China, fiscal deadlock in Washington, decelerating corporate earnings growth — and asked how the stock market would perform, few would have predicted a good year.
But that's just what they got.
The Dow Jones industrial average, the Standard & Poor's 500 and the Nasdaq composite index all ended the year substantially higher, despite losing ground in the final days of year as concerns about the looming "fiscal cliff" mounted.
The Dow gained 7 percent for the year, its fourth consecutive annual advance, having started the year at 12,217. The S&P 500, which started the year at 1,257, is up 13 percent, beating the 7.8 percent average annual gain of the past 20 years. The Nasdaq also logged a better-than-average gain, 16 percent.
Including dividends, the total return on the S&P 500 index was even better: 16 percent.
Financial companies led the gains among S&P 500 stocks, advancing 26 percent, as banks continued their restructuring efforts after the recession. Bank of America more than doubled, gaining $6.05 to $11.61 and Citigroup advanced $13.25, or 50 percent, to $39.56. Utilities, the best-performing industry group last year, was the only sector of 10 industry groups in the index to decline, dropping 2.9 percent.
"There's been a lot thrown at this market, and it's proven to be very resilient," said Gary Flam, a portfolio manager at Bel Air Investment Advisors in California. "Here we are at the end of the year, and it's still relatively strong."
Stocks started the year on a tear, with optimism about an improving job market and a broader economic recovery providing the backdrop to the S&P 500's best first-quarter rally in 14 years.
The index advanced 12 percent by the end of March, closing the quarter at 1,408, its highest in almost four years, with financial companies and technology firms leading the charge. The Dow ended the first quarter at 13,212, logging an 8 percent gain.
Apple was one of the star performers of the first quarter and was probably the year's most talked-about company.
The popularity of the iPhone and iPad led to staggering sales growth that helped push its stock up 48 percent to almost $600 at the end of March. Apple also announced a dividend and overtook Exxon Mobil as the U.S.'s most valuable company.
At the start of the second quarter, the intensifying European debt crisis and concerns about the impact that it would have on global economic growth prompted a sell-off.
By the start of June, U.S. stocks had given up the year's gains. Borrowing costs for Spain surged and investors fretted over the outcome of Greek elections that had the potential to pull the euro currency bloc apart.
The outlook for growth in China, the world's second-largest economy, also began to weigh on investors' minds. Economic growth there slowed to 8.1 percent in the first quarter as export demand waned, and investors worried that it would keep falling.
The Dow fell as low as 12,101 June 4. The S&P dropped to 1,278 June 1.
The second quarter was also marred by Facebook's initial public offering.
The stock sale was one of the most keenly anticipated initial public offerings in years, but investors didn't "like" the $16 billion market debut. The social network priced its IPO at $38 per share, and the stock started to fall soon after the first day of trading on concern about the company's mobile strategy.
Facebook closed as low as $17.73 on Sept. 4 before recovering some of the ground it lost to close the year at $26.62.
Company earnings reports were also starting to make uncomfortable reading for investors. Earnings growth for S&P 500 companies fell as low as 0.8 percent in the second quarter, according to S&P Capital IQ data.
The stock market only recovered its poise after the European Union put together loans to bail out Spain's banks on June 10 and the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, pledged to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro.
Speculation that the Federal Reserve was set to provide the economy with more stimulus to prevent it from slipping back into recession also bolstered stocks.
The rally even survived a blip when a software glitch at trading firm Knight Capital threw stock prices into chaos Aug. 1.
The firm said the problem was triggered by new trading software it installed. Erroneous orders were sent to 140 stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange, causing sudden price swings and surging trading volume.
Apple launched the iPhone 5, the latest version of its smartphone, in September, and the company's stock climbed to a record close of $702.10 on Sept. 19. That gave Apple a market value of $658 billion, and many analysts predicted more gains lay ahead.
By the time Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced Sept. 13 that the U.S. central bank would start a third round of its bond-purchase program, which is intended to push longer term interest rates lower and encourage borrowing and investment, the S&P 500 had surged 14 percent from its June 1 low. A day later, the index peaked at five-year high of 1,466. The Dow Jones reached its peak for the year of 13,610, Oct. 5.
As is often the case on Wall Street, investors "bought the rumor and sold the fact," and quickly turned their attention to the challenges that lay ahead.
Analysts had also been cutting their outlook for growth in the final quarter of the year. At the start of the second quarter, estimated earnings growth for the period was 15.7 percent. That forecast had fallen to 3.4 percent by Dec. 27.
"One of the blessings that supported the stock market's moves in prior years was earnings growth," said Lawrence Creatura, a portfolio manager at Federated Investors. "That's true this year, but at a decelerating rate. It's not gone unnoticed that earnings growth is slowing, and many forecasts now include a full stall."
Apple's halo also began to slip in the final three months of the year. Its iPad Mini tablet, launched Nov. 2, met with lukewarm reviews, there were hints of unrest among its executive ranks. Investors began to fret that the intensifying competition in the smartphone market would crimp Apple's profits. The stock tumbled, and despite rallying in recent days is still down 27 percent from its September peak.
The year's final twist came in Washington.
Stocks wavered ahead of a presidential election that at times seemed too close to call, and while President Barack Obama ultimately reclaimed the White House by a comfortable margin, the Republicans retained control of the House.
The divided government set the stage for a tense end to the year as Democrats and Republicans sought to thrash out a budget plan that would avoid the U.S. falling off the "fiscal cliff," a series of tax hikes and government spending cuts that economists say would push the economy back into recession.
Initially, markets fell as much as 5 percent in the 10 days after the elections as investors worried that a divided government would not be able to agree on a budget plan to cut the U.S. deficit.
While the S&P 500 managed to recoup those losses by December on optimism that a deal would be reached, some investors are still urging caution. Any agreement will still be "ill-tasting medicine" to the economy, as it will almost certainly involve both spending cuts and tax hikes, says Joe Costigan, director of equity research at Bryn Mawr Trust Company.
"The question is, how much will the drag from the government be offset by business and personal spending," says Costigan. "The market has reasonable expectations for growth priced in, so I don't think we're going to see a big run-up.

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Fed minutes short-circuit Wall Street rally

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks dipped on Thursday after signs the Federal Reserve has growing concern about its highly stimulative monetary policy, giving investors reason to pull back after a two-day rally.
The minutes from the Fed's December policy meeting, released on Thursday, showed increasing reticence about adding to the central bank's $2.9 trillion balance sheet, which it expanded sharply in response to the financial crisis and recession of 2007-2009.
Some policymakers thought asset buying should be slowed or stopped before the end of 2013 while others highlighted the need for further stimulus. The Fed's policy of easy credit has helped push the S&P 500 to a 13.4 percent gain in 2012. Ending that policy would remove an incentive for investors to purchase riskier assets like stocks.
"The surprise was the changes to duration and extent of that program in 2013, but given the tone in previous Fed meeting minutes, it should not have been an entire surprise," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon.
Despite the concerns about the effects of its asset purchases, the Fed look set to continue its open-ended stimulus program for now.
Stocks pushed the S&P 500 index 4.3 percent higher in the previous two sessions. On Thursday investors turned their focus to coming battles in Congress, including the likelihood of bitter fights over budget cuts and raising the federal debt ceiling.
"We were definitely technically extended and ripe for a little bit of a consolidation and today is very orderly - traders and investors are still trying to digest the language and the details from the 2012 taxpayer act," Dickson said.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> dropped 21.19 points, or 0.16 percent, to 13,391.36. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> shed 3.05 points, or 0.21 percent, to 1,459.37. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> lost 11.70 points, or 0.38 percent, to 3,100.57.
Economic data showed U.S. private-sector employers shrugged off a looming budget crisis and stepped up hiring in December, offering further evidence of underlying strength in the economy as 2012 ended.
The government's broader monthly payrolls report, due on Friday, is expected to show the economy created 150,000 jobs compared with 146,000 in November, according to a Reuters poll. The U.S. unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 7.7 percent.
Retailers advanced after several major companies in the sector beat expectations of modest sales increases in December, with the S&P retail index <.spxrt> up 0.4 percent.
Shares in Costco Wholesale Corp rose 1 percent to $102.49 after the company reported a better-than-expected 9 percent rise in December sales at stores open at least a year.
Gap Inc stock climbed 2.3 percent to $32.09 following news that the retailer will buy women's fashion boutique Intermix Inc, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Family Dollar Stores Inc stumbled 13 percent to $55.74 on the company's report of lower-than-expected quarterly profit.
Volume was relatively strong, with about 6.68 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE MKT and Nasdaq, slightly above the 2012 daily average of 6.42 billion.
Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by 1,692 to 1,321, while on the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers 1,287 to 1,187.

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Hong Kong shares may trim strong 2013 start after Fed voices concern

HONG KONG, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares could end a
two-day rally on Friday, tracking Wall Street weakness after
signs that the U.S. Federal Reserve has growing concerns about
its stimulative monetary policy.
Any losses could be limited if mainland China markets reopen
strongly on Friday, trading for the first day in 2013 after a
three-day New Year holiday.
On Thursday, the Hang Seng Index ended up 0.4 percent
at 23,398.6, its highest since June 1, 2011. The China
Enterprises Index of the top Chinese listings in Hong
Kong added 0.8 percent, reaching another peak since August 2011.
On the week, the indexes are up 3.2 and 5.5 percent,
respectively. The H-share index's relative strength index (RSI)
value suggests that it is now at its most overbought since
October 2010.
Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei is up 3 percent in
its first trading session for the year, while South Korea's
KOSPI is down 0.4 percent at 0042 GMT.
FACTORS TO WATCH:
* Consolidation of Austria's cutthroat telecom market moved
ahead on Thursday when Hutchison Whampoa Ltd completed
its 1.3 billion euro ($1.7 billion) takeover of Orange Austria,
making it the country's third-biggest mobile operator.
* Hong Kong's Li & Fung Group agreed to acquire a
majority stake in South Korean children's apparel maker Suhyang
Networks for roughly 200 billion won ($188 million), a South
Korean newspaper reported on Thursday.
* Hong Kong November 2012 retail sales rose 9.5 percent from
a year earlier.
* Bestway International Holdings Ltd has cancelled
part of its mining area in Mongolia due to the implementation of
new regulations.
* Chinese property developer Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd
has issued $500 million in senior notes due 2020
bearing an interest rate of 10.25 percent per annum.
* Chinese property developer Country Garden has
issued $750 million senior notes due 2023 with an interest rate

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Asia stocks eke out gains on China hopes, oil eases

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Most Asian stock markets edged higher on Thursday on hopes of a steady economic revival in China, although oil gave back part of the previous session's strong gains as investors took some money off the table and braced for more U.S. budget battles.
The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index of stocks rose 0.2 percent following Wednesday's 2 percent jump on relief that U.S. politicians had averted the "fiscal cliff".
Data from China showing the services sector expanded in December continued to underpin expectations of an economic recovery that has helped spur a strong rally in Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares over the past month.
The China Enterprises index which rallied more than 4 percent in the previous session eased 0.2 percent. Onshore Chinese markets will resume trading on Friday.
"China looks like it's improving at the margin and the market has momentum that could last for at least a few months," said Christian Keilland, head of trading at BTIG in Hong Kong.
"Investors seem to have accepted that reforms are underway but they're going to happen at a slower pace."
Australian stocks rose 0.7 percent to their highest in more than 19 months, with mining giants Rio Tinto up 2.4 percent and BHP Billiton up 0.8 percent, among the top gainers on the benchmark S&P ASX/200 index.
South Korea's Kospi underperformed the region, falling 0.4 percent as automakers and other exporters slumped on a stronger Korean won, which hit a 16-month high against the dollar overnight.
In other currency markets, the Japanese yen bounced after hitting a 29-month low versus the dollar earlier in the day but analysts warned that any strength is likely to be short-lived.
"Technically dollar/yen looks somewhat overbought here. It's gone a long way in a very short time," said Callum Henderson, global head of FX research for Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore, adding that the dollar could see some consolidation in the near term before heading higher.
The euro which in overnight trading was close to a 8-1/2 month high against the dollar, slipped 0.1 percent.
The U.S. dollar rose 0.2 percent against a basket of major currencies.
President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans face even bigger budget battles in the next two months after a hard-fought deal averted the fiscal cliff of automatic tightening that threatened to push the U.S. into recession.
Strength in the dollar and profit-taking pushed oil prices lower with Brent crude slipping 0.3 percent and U.S crude futures down 19 cents to $92.93.
"After the initial excitement, reality sets in," said Victor Shum, oil consultant at IHS Purvin & Gertz. "There will be other negotiations and the deal is a compromise."

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South African rand weakens in muted trade

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa's rand softened against the dollar on Thursday in thin post-holiday trade, underperforming many emerging market currencies.
The rand was at 8.5168 to the dollar at 0651 GMT, 0.3 percent weaker than Wednesday's New York close, making it one of the worst performers in a basket of 20 emerging market currencies monitored by Reuters.
It had reached a 3-month high of 8.42 to the dollar early on Wednesday, lifted by U.S. lawmakers reaching a deal to avoid a "fiscal cliff" of tax increases and spending cuts that threatened the world's biggest economy.
The rand erased most of those gains later in the session.
Trading was expected to pick up next week when most market participants return from their holidays, giving the rand some direction.
"There's still a holiday mentality out there and liquidity has been very thin. The rand has been trading erratically," said one trader.
"We will only start seeing proper trades coming back into the market next week when market participants are back again."
The yield on the 2026 government bond was at 7.25 percent while the 2015 issue was yielding 5.33 percent.

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Brent falls towards $112; China data offsets US concerns

 Brent crude pared earlier losses to stay above $112 a barrel on Thursday as positive data reinforced hopes of an economic recovery in China, but the prospect of more budget battles in the United States and rising oil supply weighed on prices.
President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans face even bigger budget wrangling in the next two months after a hard-fought deal halted a round of automatic fiscal tightening that threatened to push the world's largest economy into recession.
Brent crude fell 29 cents to $112.18 a barrel by 0529 GMT after rising more than 1 percent on Wednesday to settle at the highest since October.
U.S. crude for February delivery was down 21 cents to $92.91 after closing at its highest since September.
"After the initial excitement, reality sets in," said Victor Shum, oil consultant at IHS Purvin & Gertz. "There will be other negotiations and the deal is a compromise."
Both contracts pared earlier losses of more than 50 cents after data showed China's services sector expanded in December, fueling hopes that the world's second largest economy is recovering.
Oil prices surged at the start of the year despite analysts' expectations of a lower price in 2013 as supply outweighs demand. Crude production in the United States has hit a 19-year high while Russia pumped the most oil in the world last year, ahead of Saudi Arabia.
"If one focuses on the oil fundamentals, pricing at the current level appears overbought," Shum said, pointing to the fragile global economy and the growth in oil production from non-OPEC countries.
"In 2013, OPEC may have to limit supply in order to accommodate a rise in non-OPEC oil production growth," he said.
In the United States, a major pipeline expansion that aims to ease the bottleneck at Cushing, Oklahoma -- a factor that has depressed U.S. crude prices -- should pump at full rates from the end of next week.
The spread between Brent and West Texas Intermediate has narrowed to about $19 a barrel, down from 2012 highs of about $26.
Investors will be scouring weekly data on U.S. jobless claims and oil inventories due later on Thursday for further cues on the economic health of, and fuel demand in, the world's largest economy.
U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles likely fell last week due to lower imports as refiners drew down inventories for year-end tax purposes, a preliminary Reuters poll of eight analysts showed.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its report on Thursday, delayed due to the New Year day's holiday on Tuesday. The U.S. government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) will issue its data on Friday.

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Will retailers rebound after weak holiday season?

As signs emerge that holiday sales this year grew at the weakest pace since 2008, investors are dumping retail stocks. Analysts are crowing about the missing "consumer engine" without which the economy may stagnate.
Many fear that the season's weakness will reverberate throughout the economy: Stores will be saddled with excess merchandise, forcing them to slash prices and accept razor-thin profit margins. Demand will soften for goods up and down the supply chain, leading eventually to a decline in orders for factory goods and weaker manufacturing. Growth will slow.
Yet there are plenty of reasons to believe that these fears are overblown, some market-watchers argue. Auto sales are strong, as are some measures of consumer sentiment. Home values are rising, leaving fewer Americans on the brink of foreclosure and helping many feel more financially secure.
Above all, they point out, there is nothing permanent about the "fiscal cliff," a set of tax hikes and spending cuts that will automatically take effect at the beginning of 2013 if lawmakers are unable to reach a deal to avert it.
When the fiscal issue is addressed and demand bounces back, these contrarians argue, beaten-down retail stocks may turn out to be this year's best after-Christmas bargain.
"There may be some caution ahead of the fiscal cliff" because of uncertainty about tax rates, "but it's more of a road bump than any fundamental weakness," says David Kelly, chief global strategist for JP Morgan Funds.
He notes that a daily tracker of consumer sentiment, the Rasmussen Consumer Index, rose Friday to 98.9, the highest level measured since January 2008. Other measures of consumer sentiment appear weaker, but Kelly believes the Rasmussen data is more reliable because it is updated daily. Most other indices rely on monthly surveys.
The fiscal cliff isn't the only reason consumers slowed down in November and December. Americans were buffeted by a series of events that made them more likely to stay home.
Superstorm Sandy caused steep holiday sales declines in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic that made the national picture appear far weaker. The presidential election distracted people in November, the Newtown massacre in December. And the rising din about Washington's current budget impasse left many people unsure what their 2013 household budgets will look like.
The outcome: Holiday sales of electronics, clothing, jewelry and home goods in the two months before Christmas increased just 0.7 percent compared with last year, according to preliminary data released Tuesday by MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse, which tracks holiday spending across all payment methods. That's the weakest holiday performance since 2008, when sales dropped several percent as the cresting financial crisis pushed the economy into a deep recession.
For many, the early results were a worrisome sign of things to come. Jeff Sica, president and chief investment officer of SICA Wealth Management in Morristown, N.J., called the retail sales result "onerous" and "a negative overhang on the market."
Still, the nation's largest retail trade group, the National Retail Federation, is sticking to its forecast that total sales for November and December will be up 4.1 percent from last year. A clearer picture will emerge next week as retailers like Macy's and Target report monthly sales.
That didn't keep investors from reacting hastily to the grim early data. Retail stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 5.4 percent this month, while the broader index declined only 1 percent. Computer and electronics retailers fared the worst, sinking 10.3 percent.
Not so fast, says Karyn Cavanaugh, market strategist with ING Investment Management in New York. She favors the consumer discretionary sector, represented in the S&P 500 by Home Depot, Amazon.com Inc., Target Corp. and Ford Motor Co., among others.
"The consumer has shown surprising resilience throughout this tepid recovery and we believe will continue to do so," Cavanaugh says. The housing turnaround "will further aid consumer and consumer confidence," she says.
Sales of new homes rose in November to the fastest pace in two and a half years, the government said Thursday. The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index also rose last month to its highest level in two and a half years, the group said Friday.
Consumer spending, to be sure, is a critical indicator of economic activity. It accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, so a true slowdown could have a painful ripple effect. That's especially true in the final two months of the year, which contribute as much as 40 percent of annual sales for many retailers.
Some analysts are warning that the pain for retailers has only just begun. Brian Sozzi, chief equities analyst at NBG Productions, says revenue results and fourth-quarter earnings forecasts, due out early next month, pose another threat to retail stocks. Sozzi recommends betting against some weaker brands, including teen apparel chain Aeropostale.
Assuming stocks continue to sink because of weak guidance and "general market angst," Sozzi said in a note to clients Friday, "the moment to potentially entertain this sector from a long perspective will be sometime before earnings season begins in mid-February."
According to Kelly and other market bulls, consumers haven't meaningfully slowed their spending. They're merely holding off as they wait for lawmakers to craft a deal that would prevent some of the scheduled tax increases.
"There's a difference between confidence and spending attitudes," Kelly says. "People are generally feeling more confident because home prices are going up."
Kelly and others believe that a deal on the fiscal cliff is all but inevitable — eventually. He acknowledges that the waiting could be painful for consumers, retailers and most other businesses, but says, "If we don't get a fiscal cliff deal, then we'll wait and get a fiscal cliff deal."
Analysts who doubt that spending will bounce back quite so quickly argue that consumers are still paying down debt and have less interest in shopping sprees, in part because median incomes are falling.
Despite the stronger housing market and other positive signs, "they're going to take the opportunity to retrench, rather than buy stuff," says Derrick Irwin, portfolio manager for Wells Fargo Advantage Funds.
Peter Tchir, manager of the hedge fund TF Market Advisors, says consumers may be shopping less because economic turbulence has helped people reassess the value of what they consume.
"We've overconsumed for so long ... how much do you really need to add?" he says. "To some extent, it's healthy for Americans to live within their means. But clearly, this week, it's not great for retail stocks."

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Immigration, economic revival head Obama's second-term checklist

- President Barack Obama is pledging to focus in his second term on immigration reform, boosting economic growth through infrastructure repair and energy policies that nod to environmental protection.
The president is mired in a difficult fight with congressional Republicans to avoid sharp spending cuts and steep tax increases collectively referred to as the "fiscal cliff." However, he still has a longer-term to-do list for his remaining four years in office, he said in an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press" that was broadcast on Sunday.
Obama, who won re-election in November after a campaign in which he succeeded in painting himself as a strong advocate for the middle class and those aspiring to join it, also promised in the interview to make a run at passing gun control legislation in the first year of his second term.
"Fixing our broken immigration system is a top priority," he said. He renewed a pledge to introduce legislation in the first year of his second term to get it done.
Immigration reform is a sensitive subject for the president, who failed to fulfill his promise to revamp the system during his first term. Latino voters were a critical part of the coalition that helped get him re-elected, a fact that may soften political opposition from Republicans, who are eager to bolster their support with that demographic group.
Immigration reform supporters on the left believe that the 11 million undocumented foreigners in the United States should be allowed a path to work toward citizenship. But opponents believe that this approach would reward people who broke the law by coming to the United States illegally.
Republicans have sought stronger measures to keep illegal immigrants from entering the United States from Mexico. Advocates on both sides of the debate want to more effectively verify legal workers in an economy in which businesses want to hire non-U.S. workers ranging from low-paid farm hands to technology-savvy professionals.
While negotiations to avoid the fiscal cliff have hogged the spotlight in the first weeks after the election, Obama said he wants to take steps to ensure the sluggish recovery gains steam.
Many observers had believed a persistently high level of unemployment would thwart Obama's chances of winning a second term. The U.S. jobless rate peaked at 10 percent in 2009 after the harshest recession since the Great Depression but has been falling and dipped to 7.7 percent in November.
The president said rebuilding crumbling roads, bridges and schools could put people back to work and put the economy on a sounder footing. He said he would pair those steps - which would likely involve government spending - with deficit reduction measures to tame the nation's budget deficit.
The president also said energy policy would be a leading emphasis. He said he would focus on how the country can produce more energy and export energy, while also dealing with environmental challenges. He did not specify how he would do that. The president's effort to fight climate change with a broad emissions trading system failed during his first term.
When pressed, Obama added gun control to his list of priorities, reiterating his support for a ban on assault rifles and high capacity clips, as well as background checks.

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Fiscal deal stalls as clock ticks to deadline

Efforts to prevent the economy from tumbling over a "fiscal cliff" stalled on Sunday as Democrats and Republicans remained at loggerheads over a deal that would prevent taxes for all Americans from rising on New Year's Day.
One hour before they had hoped to present a plan, Democratic and Republican Senate leaders said they were still unable to reach a compromise that would stop the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts that could push the U.S. economy back into recession.
"There are still serious differences between the two sides," said Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid.
Progress still appeared possible after the two sides narrowed their differences on tax increases and Republicans indicated they would withdraw a contentious proposal to slow the growth of Social Security retirement benefits.
Failure to secure a deal would deliver a heavy blow to the U.S. economy just as it is showing signs of a quicker recovery. Planned tax increases and spending cuts would suck $600 billion out of the economy and again force up unemployment, which had shown signs of improving.
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell talked several times to Vice President Joe Biden by phone in the hope of breaking the standstill. "I'm willing to get this done, but I need a dance partner," McConnell said.
Any agreement needs to be rushed through both chambers of Congress before midnight on Monday. But, even if the two sides reach a deal, procedural barriers in the Senate and the House of Representatives make quick action difficult.
Buoyed by his re-election in November, President Barack Obama has insisted that any deal must include a tax increase on the wealthiest Americans, who have seen their earnings rise steadily over the past decade at a time when income has stalled for the less affluent.
Many conservative Republicans in the House of Representatives oppose a tax hike on anyone, no matter how wealthy.
The two sides were close to agreeing to raise taxes on households earning around $400,000 or $500,000 a year - higher than Obama's preferred threshold of $250,000 - several senators told reporters.
Republicans aim to pair any tax increase with government spending cuts to benefit programs that are projected to grow ever more expensive as the population ages in coming decades.
But their proposal to slow the growth of Social Security benefits by changing the way they are measured against inflation met fierce resistance from Democrats. Obama included the proposal, known as "chained CPI," in an earlier proposal, but many of his fellow Democrats remain opposed.
'POISON PILL'
"We consider it a poison pill - they know we can't accept it. It is a big step back from where we were on Friday," a Senate Democratic aide said.
Several Senate Republicans said they would support taking that idea out of the discussion. "Most of us agree the chained CPI is off the table in these negotiations," Senator John McCain said on Twitter.
In a rare appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press," Obama pressured lawmakers to reach a deal.
"If people start seeing that on January 1st this problem still hasn't been solved... then obviously that's going to have an adverse reaction in the markets," he said, adding that he had offered Republicans significant compromises that had been rejected repeatedly.
Obama said he would try to reverse the tax hikes for most Americans if Congress fails to act.
John Boehner, the House speaker, rejected Obama's accusations that Republicans were not being amenable to compromise.
"The president's comments today are ironic, as a recurring theme of our negotiations was his unwillingness to agree to anything that would require him to stand up to his own party," he said in a statement. (Additional reporting by Tabassum Zakaria, Jeff Mason, David Lawder, Fred Barbash and Richard Cowan.

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Equity futures rise, but "cliff" stalemate suggests more losses

Equity futures were slightly higher at the beginning of electronic trading on Sunday night as talks continued in Washington over resolving the "fiscal cliff."
However, stocks still could end up falling on Monday when the cash markets open if lawmakers are unable to come to an agreement to avoid a series of $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts that are expected to hurt economic growth.
"Hard to predict how or when there will be a deal, but I believe investors will show their displeasure tomorrow by selling stocks if there is no deal," said Mohannad Aama, managing director at Beam Capital Management, an investment advisory firm in New York.
S&P 500 futures were up 5.5 points, or 0.4 percent, to 1,389.50 in electronic trading. Stocks fell sharply on Friday, with significant losses in the last minutes of trading, as prospects for a deal worsened at the beginning of the weekend.
The rise in the futures market does not necessarily augur for a rally on Monday, however. The cash market and futures markets closed with a wide gulf on Friday, by virtue of the extra 15 minutes of trading in futures, when investors sold aggressively.
The S&P 500 closed at 1,402.43 at 4 p.m. EST on Friday, down 1.1 percent, but futures continued to fall before closing 15 minutes later with a loss of 1.9 percent. S&P futures and the S&P cash index don't match point by point, but that kind of disparity is uncommon, and it points to a weak opening in stocks on Monday.
One hour before they had hoped to present a plan, Democratic and Republican Senate leaders said they were still unable to reach a compromise that would stop the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts that could push the U.S. economy back into recession.
Earlier in the day, President Barack Obama, appearing on NBC's "Meet the Press," said investors could begin to show greater concerns in the new year.
"If people start seeing that on January 1st, this problem still hasn't been solved ... then obviously that's going to have an adverse reaction in the markets," he said,
Investors have remained relatively sanguine about the process, believing that it will eventually be solved. In the past two months, markets have not shown the kind of volatility that was present during the fight to raise the debt ceiling in 2011.
Both the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 lost 1.9 percent last week, after falling for five straight sessions, the S&P 500's longest losing streak in three months. Equities have largely performed well in the last two months despite constant chatter about the fiscal cliff, but the last few days shows a bit of increased worry.

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Monti's reform path faces test beyond Italy elections

 Mario Monti declared "mission accomplished" when he resigned as Italy's prime minister, having seen off the debt crisis that loomed as he took office just over a year ago but 2013 will test whether he has laid the foundations for lasting economic change.
Elections on February 24-25 will give Italian voters their first chance to decide whether they want to stick to the broad course he has set or turn to a growing chorus of politicians who have attacked his austerity medicine.
Monti's decision to enter the race himself has put his reform agenda at the heart of the campaign and will have effects far outside Italy, the euro zone's third-largest economy, which took the single currency to the brink of collapse last year.
Former European Commissioner Monti, favored by the markets, the business establishment and even the Catholic church, has insisted that the election must be about creating agreement on policy rather than on any individual.
In that sense, the true test of his success may be not whether he wins a second term but whether he has succeeded in convincing the other parties and the country as a whole to stay with the liberalizing agenda he has laid out.
That remains uncertain, despite the plaudits he earned abroad for his handling of the crisis, as ordinary Italians have seen their living standards fall and unemployment rise relentlessly.
The centre-left Democratic Party (PD), the favorites to win the election, have supported Monti in parliament and say they will maintain the broad course he has set, while putting more emphasis on growth and helping workers and the poor.
But some on the left of the party and among its trade union allies say inequality has risen under Monti.
On the right, Silvio Berlusconi accuses Monti of taking orders from German Chancellor Angela Merkel and penalizing middle class Italians for the benefit of German banks. He has called for sweeping tax cuts to stimulate growth.
The runaway success of the anti-establishment comic Beppe Grillo and his 5-Star Movement, which wants to hold a referendum to decide whether to leave the euro, has also underlined the widespread mood of disillusion now deeply anchored in Italy.
"I don't have any confidence in my country, absolutely not," said Rosaria Resciniti, one of thousands of young people lining up to enter a competition for a job as primary school teacher in Rome.
"It is a country for old people. We should all leave and leave the country to the pensioners," she said.
UNEMPLOYMENT EMERGENCY
Monti himself acknowledged the disaffection on Friday when he confirmed that he would be joining the election campaign as head of a centrist alliance committed to continuing his reforms.
"Fortunately, it seems that the financial emergency is over, but there is another emergency which is just as serious or even more so, which is the unemployment emergency, especially as regards youth unemployment and the lack of growth," he said.
Helped by the promise of European Central Bank support, the main gauge of investor confidence, the spread between yields on Italian 10 year government bonds and safer German Bunds has narrowed from the crisis levels of more than 550 basis points hit when Monti took office to about 320 points.
But the broader indicators of economic health have got worse, a fact constantly pointed out by critics such as Berlusconi and Grillo, who say the tax hikes and spending cuts imposed to calm the markets have dragged Italy into a recessionary spiral.
The economy has contracted for five consecutive quarters and is estimated to have shrunk by 2.4 percent in 2012. Public debt has topped the symbolic 2 trillion euro level, corruption and waste are still rampant, and youth unemployment is over 36 percent.
Italy has had the euro zone's most sluggish economy for more than a decade, and whether any of the leaders fighting the election can turn that around quickly is doubtful, as one of the possible ministers in a centre-left government acknowledged.
"This crisis will last throughout the whole of the next parliament at least," deputy PD leader Enrico Letta told Reuters last month.
The task will be greatly complicated if market sentiment turns against Italy as it did in 2011, when tensions in the Berlusconi government raised doubts about its commitment to budget discipline.
Monti, seen outside Italy at least as a guarantor of stability, has said he was "not a man sent by Providence", but whether he himself will be involved in the next government has been one of the main questions hanging over the race.
His sober, professorial style came as a welcome relief to international investors and European partners unnerved by the turmoil and scandal surrounding Berlusconi as bond markets crashed in the summer of 2011.
But if opinion polls are confirmed on election day, it is difficult to see how he could become prime minister without resorting to the kind of backroom deals that characterized the shaky coalitions of the postwar period, when governments often survived no more than months or even weeks.
The most recent opinion poll gave centre-left PD leader Pier Luigi Bersani support of 36 percent, with Monti on 23.3 percent, ahead of both Berlusconi's People of Freedom (PDL) and Grillo's 5-Star Movement.
Monti's involvement in the election has ruled him out as a candidate for president of the Republic, a post that would have given him significant behind-the-scenes influence.
That leaves the possibility of becoming finance minister in a Bersani government, though there has been little sign of enthusiasm either from his side or from the PD, which has maintained a respectful tone towards Monti but now clearly sees him as a political adversary.
GROWTH AGENDA
Beyond the issue of personalities, the deep-rooted problems afflicting the Italian economy will be a formidable challenge to any new government.
"The situation in Italy is not easy, there are too many centres of power where everybody blocks everything. Our infrastructure isn't working and we've got corruption all over," said Renzo Rosso, head of the group behind Diesel jeans, one of the Italian companies that has managed to find a way past the obstacles in its home market to create a global success.
All the main parties in the race have called for more emphasis on creating growth, which along with its towering public debt has long been Italy's Achilles heel.
Monti's own 25-page agenda lays out a range of answers, such as taxing consumption and large fortunes more than companies and workers, and opening up markets to more competition and breaking down the suffocating power of special interest groups.
Turning such ideas into practice and convincing the public to go along with them is another matter.
Reflecting on her time in office, Elsa Fornero, an academic expert recruited into Monti's technocrat government whose labor reform plans were largely stymied by resistance from both unions and employers, said she had learned the difference the hard way.
"In this period of almost a year now, I have been able to measure the distance between being a professor and being a minister," she told foreign reporters last month.
"It's something completely different. I have been more used to formulating rational solutions, but the rationality of a solution is not enough because society is more differentiated and doesn't just live on rationality.

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He's not running, but Italy's Monti has a plan

For someone not running for political office, Premier Mario Monti has an awfully detailed plan for how to fix Italy's financial woes and bring the country and the rest of Europe back to economic health. And by Monday, not only had centrist leaders who want him as premier endorsed it, but so did the head of the Catholic Church in Italy.
Monti issued a 25-page agenda to "Change Italy, Reform Europe" late Sunday after announcing he had ruled out campaigning for February elections but would consider leading the next government if politicians who share his focus on reform request it.
Monti outlined the steps Italy must take to finish the reforms launched by his 13-month-long technical government to reign in Italy's public debt, spur economic growth and bring Europe's No. 3 economy out of recession.
"In a word, he will be the non-candidate candidate," commentator Massimo Franco wrote in leading daily Corriere della Sera on Monday.
Some of Monti's priorities include attracting greater foreign investment, investing in research, capitalizing on Italy's cultural treasures and fighting tax evasion and corruption. He called for incentives to hire women and young workers to help reduce the 36.5 percent youth unemployment rate. He said Italy's public administration — tarnished by recent embezzlement scandals — needed to be more efficient and transparent.
In an open-letter to Italians introducing the agenda, Monti said he wanted to contribute some ideas for Italy's future to help orient Italy's political leaders as they embark in what is expected to be a bitter two-month campaign before Feb. 24-25 elections.
"To those forces who show a convinced and credible adhesion, I would give my appreciation, encouragement, and if asked, my guidance," Monti wrote.
Italy's centrist leaders, who had sought Monti as their candidate for premier, discussed the document Monday morning and enthusiastically endorsed it, according to the ANSA news agency, citing sources within the movement.
And Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco, the head of the Italian bishops' conference, also gave it a thumbs-up, praising Monti's "innovative" proposals. Support from the church is considered vitally important for a government in largely Roman Catholic Italy, and the Vatican has made clear its admiration for Monti, a practicing Catholic.
"Mario Monti has presented a path, a way forward that is being offered to the serious and honest reflection of all," Bagnasco told state-run RAI radio.
Monti, a respected economist, was tapped last year to head a technical government after Silvio Berlusconi was forced to resign as premier amid market turmoil over his inability to pass necessary reforms to save Italy from Europe's debt crisis.
Berlusconi's People of Freedom party, Parliament's largest, had supported Monti's reforms, which included painful tax hikes and an increase in the retirement age. But Berlusconi yanked his support earlier this month, prompting Monti to resign and force elections about two months early.
Monti remains premier of a caretaker government. In an end-of-the-year press conference Sunday, he made clear his distaste for Berlusconi's antics, refusing the scandal-tainted ex-premier's offer to run on a center-right ticket.

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